Briefing at a Glance

  • According to the latest Employment Trends Index from The Conference Board, the U.S. labor market remains in a state of "low hiring, low quitting." This index is a composite indicator of nonfarm employment.
  • The index declined for the second consecutive month, a trend that points to "slower nonfarm employment growth ahead," said Jannik Schulz, economic research associate at The Conference Board, in a statement, adding that "not many workers are quitting."
  • Meanwhile, surveys show that 22.5% of consumers believe "jobs are hard to find," the highest level since January 2021.

In-Depth Analysis

These findings align with recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported that total nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, a figure well below private sector expectations.

Additionally, nonfarm payroll figures for April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. The chief economist at Glassdoor noted in a recent statement that this could signal a significant slowdown is on the horizon.

Schulz said that "consumer pessimism about the hiring outlook weighed heavily on the index's performance in June," consistent with the overall state of the current labor market.

The Conference Board's report also found that initial jobless claims rose for the second consecutive month in early June, reaching 222,000, the highest monthly average so far this year.

Schulz stated that although "jobless claims remain near historic lows," the index "interprets this rise as a negative signal for the future labor market."

Nevertheless, according to recent research from talent acquisition platform ICIMS, workers who can create and manage artificial intelligence systems remain in short supply. In particular, despite an overall increase in layoffs across the tech industry, hiring demand for roles such as computer programmers, software developers, and database administrators has grown significantly year over year.