Within the trucking industry, a technology battle is brewing that rivals Godzilla vs. King Kong, or Superman vs. Batman. However, this contest is unlikely to attract audiences beyond physics enthusiasts and transportation officials, because the core issue is: which truck will replace diesel-powered Class 8 heavy trucks—battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks (FCEVs)?

As fleets look toward a zero-emission future, the clash between BEVs and FCEVs is quietly unfolding behind the scenes and at industry conferences. For OEMs, the focus is on winning the favor and orders of well-funded large fleets—which are likely to be the first in North America to order zero-emission vehicles.

The metaphor for this contest depends on the respondent, and the answer may also be based on the type of energy they support. But entering 2022, one thing seems increasingly clear: battery technology is temporarily ahead, but far from having locked in victory.

The elusive "hydrogen highway"

For industry insiders, this is a familiar debate, and the positions of industry leaders have reversed.

At the beginning of this century, former U.S. President George W. Bush and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger embraced hydrogen and talked about the future "hydrogen highway." In 2004, Schwarzenegger signed an executive order planning to build a hydrogen highway by 2010—a network of hydrogen refueling stations along major highways,At that time, the governor expected to build 200 hydrogen refueling stations. However, these highways ultimately never materialized.

Chris Nelder, host of the "Energy Transition Show" and an advocate for electric trucks, said the market did not see the long-term benefits or feasibility of hydrogen fuel cells at the time—even for passenger vehicles.

Meanwhile, BEV advocates continued to push forward despite competition from cheap gasoline and other green modes (including hybridsand natural gas).

"Electric vehicles completely won the market." — Chris Nelder, host of the "Energy Transition Show"

Then Tesla arrived with its sleek and popular electric vehicles, quickly snapped up by celebrities. Tesla used this momentum to develop the Class 8 Semi, but its production planshave been repeatedly delayed。

Now, the newly signed federalInfrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(the bipartisan infrastructure law) includes $7.5 billion for building an electric vehicle charging network. President Joe Biden's goal is to build 500,000 charging stations for battery electric passenger vehicles and trucks.

"Electric vehicles completely won the market," Nelder said. "The reason is that electricity is everywhere."

Usage data also shows the advantage of electric. Tim Denoyer, vice president at ACT Research, said that while it is difficult to precisely count the number of battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks in operation in North America, he estimates Class 8 BEVs are between 4,000 and 5,000. As for fuel cell trucks, "I would be surprised if there were a few hundred," Denoyer said.

Nelder believes the trend is already obvious. He sees Daimler Trucks adopting pure electric technology, while many private fleets like PepsiCo and Amazon are shifting to lighter battery electric trucks for delivery. Nelder points out that hydrogen could lose across the board, even in the Class 8 heavy truck sector.

OEMs have also signaled that the wind is shifting. At ACT Expo in spring 2019, then-CEO of Daimler Trucks Roger Nielsen said in a keynote that the largest U.S. truck manufacturer would focus on battery electric trucks. Then in April 2021, Traton announced that the future of heavy trucks belongs to pure electric drive.

"Hydrogen trucks... will gradually lose to increasingly practical electric trucks, for the simple reason that the latter have lower operating costs,"wrote Traton's Matthias Gründler and Andreas Kammel. The two executives also noted that even if hydrogen prices fall, electric trucks will maintain a sustained advantage.

"Trucks are capital goods used with high intensity, and their fuel costs far exceed acquisition costs," Gründler and Kammel wrote. "The more electric trucks are used, the greater their energy cost advantage. Thus, the common notion that 'hydrogen trucks are for long-haul and electric trucks only for short-haul' begins to crumble."

Of course, electric trucks themselves face challenges. On January 12, the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) and the Rocky Mountain Institute releaseda study on the use of electric trucks. The study summarized the scale of infrastructure needed to charge Class 3, 4, and 5 vans and step vans, Class 6 box trucks, Class 8 yard tractors, and Class 8 regional haul tractors in the United States and Canada.

The study shows that these vehicles total about 5.2 million and require 168,582 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually. But in return, they could avoid more than 100 million metric tons of carbon emissions.

Let the best use cases win

The diverse applications of heavy trucks open up optimal use spaces for both electric and hydrogen trucks. Long-haul transport is currently not ideal for battery electric trucks, and fuel cell electric truck manufacturers are eyeing this segment. Currently, the shorter the operating range, the better battery electric trucks perform.

Parker Meeks, chief strategy officer at Hyzon, said truck buyers have three core goals when evaluating zero-emission trucks: first, the truck design itself; second, maintenance and replacement costs; third, fuel availability. "Frankly, it all comes down to fuel," Meeks said.

When fleets consider zero-emission vehicles, they first evaluate how these heavy vehicles perform in five major applications. But according to Mike Roeth, executive director of NACFE, many fleet managers go beyond these five applications and think about whether BEVs will ultimately prevail over FCEVs, resulting in a clear industry winner.

Roeth said that at a meeting with fleet executives, they were eager to know who would win sales dominance. "We like cage fights, right?" Roeth said. "It's a hot topic."

For fleets, the strategy for adopting BEVs and FCEVs in the Class 8 segment leans toward slow and steady. Electric seems to have an advantage, especially in short-haul fleets like less-than-truckload (LTL) and last-mile.

XPO Logistics is testing several electric Class 8 trucks manufactured by Daimler Trucks at a facility in Hayward, California. According to Joseph Checkler, vice president of public relations and social media at XPO, its pilot projects in France and Spain have gone further because local governments are strongly promoting green energy. "Electric trucks have great application potential, but before reaching critical scale, the industry still faces technical and economic barriers," Checkler said.

However, XPO's LTL competitor Saia has decided its BEV purchases will reach triple digits. On January 6,Saia signed a letter of intent to purchase or lease up to 100 Class 8 electric trucks from Nikola. Saia officials said the agreement was reached after successful demonstrations. Deliveries will occur between 2022 and 2024, with the first 25 trucks possibly arriving in 2022.

OEMs prepare for a mixed future

Fuel cell companies believe that achieving a zero-emission future will be a mix of multiple technologies, where hydrogen is indispensable because BEVs have shortcomings in range and charging time.

According to Meeks, one application where hydrogen could make progress is garbage collection. Although many cities, including New York City, are testing electric garbage trucks, "most cities don't really want to try a second one," Meeks said. The frequent start-stop and load collection of garbage collection are draining battery power.

The long-haul Class 8 market is also attractive to Hyzon. Meeks said its fuel cell prototype has a range of 375 miles, which could increase to 400 miles in the future—a reassuring number for fleets with range anxiety.

Unlike electricity, the hydrogen network has not yet been built. Therefore, Hyzon plans to develop and distribute hydrogen with partners. On November 10,Hyzon and TC Energy announcedthat they had reached an agreement on the development, construction, operation, and ownership of hydrogen production facilities (which Hyzon calls "hubs") across North America.

Although Hyzon is working to build a network and bring hydrogen costs down to parity with diesel—which it believes can be achieved with federal subsidies—it also acknowledges that some trucking segments are already dominated by battery electric. Meeks said Hyzon will focus on buses, Class 8 trucks, and some high-intensity Class 6 applications.

Some OEMs are targeting all emerging areas. Brett Pope, director of electric sales for Volvo Trucks North America, said the company is preparing multiple zero-emission options, starting with battery electric. "Since no single solution fits all customers, Volvo Trucks offers different solutions," Pope said in an email, adding that the company already has natural gas and BEV in production while developing FCEVs.

Similar to Traton and Volvo, Roeth believes the future will be a mix of zero-emission options, even if battery electric holds the largest share. "It's 'and,' not 'or,'" Roeth said. "We are certain both will exist."