Key Voices in Trucking: 2026 Market May See Modest Recovery, but Upside Limited

The freight market has recently shown early signs of a meaningful recovery, potentially signaling a significant shift from the prolonged downturn.

"Anything could happen this year," said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT iQ. "I'm betting it will be a wild year."

Analysts and trucking executives expect a gradual, inflationary uptick in freight demand in 2026.

In 2025,tightening capacity, whichcould be a key factor driving a significant market shift. Consumer spending has been cautious, but there are some signs of an uptick—though unevenly distributed. Freight volumes have beenslowly climbing, but spot ratesseem to be holding firm after a surge at the end of the year.

Forecasts show gradual and inflationary scenarios

For some industry voices, structural changes appear to be taking root; for others, the market may resemble the weak demand of 2025.

"We do expect that overall truckload market demand in 2026 will largely repeat 2025," said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence. He noted that last year's tariffs pulled demand forward, creating ups and downs in an already sluggish market.

FTR's baseline forecast sees rate increases at or potentially below inflation, Vise said.

Uber Freight alsoforecasts multiple scenarios: one baseline scenario with gradual month-over-month growth, and an inflationary scenario, said Chief Economist and Data Science Manager Mazen Danaf.

"If the FMCSA rule on non-local carriers passes, the market could experience significant tightening, leading to double-digit growth in spot rates," Uber Freight said in its December2026 Outlook.

In the baseline scenario, spot rates should rise year-over-year each month in 2026, Danaf said.

These scenarios are based on apparent structural changes emerging in the market, Danaf said. Among them, he pointed to the following:

• In particular, the rise in spot rates from November to December compared to typical seasonal increases raised red flags. The usual mid-single-digit monthly increases in prior years were broken by a 15% jump this year.
• Year-over-year monthly metrics also suggest a structural shift may be occurring.
• A range of factors also point to changing conditions, such as declining long-haul trucking employment, weak tractor sales, and pressure from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) to revoke operating authority.

"Our best explanation for this is that the market is tightening driven by supply, not demand," Danaf said. He and other analysts emphasized that federal regulations have not yet had a significant impact. For Danaf, these trends predate federal policy changes, such as theEnglish proficiency penaltiesand stricternon-local documentation requirements。

introduced last year. If demand remains weak, the only way out may be through supply constraints, but analysts say that is rare.

"I expect a slight, gradual increase overall compared to last year," said Andrew King, executive director of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association Foundation. "But is it enough to really push us into an upcycle?"

Analysts say market turning point still to be seen

For King, a key factor in entering a new market cycle is freight dispersion—when demand hits multiple different sectors simultaneously, pushing capacity to its limits and causing significant rate changes.

"That has been the case in past market cycles," he said. For example, in early 2017, a series of high-pressure factors converged: the implementation of electronic logging device rules, along with the fracking and housing booms. "The reverse is also true," he added, when dispersion decreases, rates fall.

Another leading indicator recently provided hopeful signals of market improvement, suggesting possible tightening on the demand and carrier side. The tender rejection rate, where contract carriers refuse freight, saw a significant and sustained rise in late 2025, but according to Ryder's January "Industry Conditions Report" (using SONAR data), this may be temporary.

Webb Estes, president and COO of Estes Express Lines, noted that factors he is watching include retail spending, weather impacts this winter compared to last, falling interest rates, and housing activity.

He is optimistic about 2026 and said last year's tariffs made many people nervous. But the industry weathered those changes, and this year there don't appear to be compounding tariff effects, he said.

"Right now it looks like things are stabilizing," he said. "That puts you in a good position to potentially start seeing growth."

Still, the industry's record growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent crash triggered a three-year freight recession. Under President Donald Trump's second term, policies involving tariffs and stricter driver qualification standards could distort traditional industry condition signals.

DAT's Croke said the industry is adapting.

"Over the past year, we've learned to get used to the fact that anything is possible in this freight market," he said. "Our old way of looking at the freight market is outdated."