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Retailers are likely well-stocked for the coming holidays as this year’s peak shipping season draws to a close, according to Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), who spoke in a statement released Friday.

The Global Port Tracker report, published Friday by NRF and Hackett Associates, showed a 13.2% year-over-year increase in 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) processed at major U.S. ports in June. That figure is lower than the industry group’s earlier projection of nearly 19% growth for the same month.

Looking ahead, July imports are now expected to decline 7.6% year over year, a notable revision from the Global Port Tracker’s previous forecast, which had predicted July imports would “hit a new all-time record,” according to a press release issued last month.

Although ports have not yet reported August figures, the industry group projects that TEU volumes at major U.S. ports will fall 4.2% year over year in August.

“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” Gold noted. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”

The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs, in effect since February, expired on July 23, and a new round of Section 301 tariffs took effect the following day, per NRF.

Tariff policies in the U.S. over the past year have altered some of the buying timelines for retailers. A Deloitte study last year found that respondents said they placed over half of holiday orders by the end of May, which was about two months earlier compared to Deloitte’s 2024 survey.